A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
